A combination of negative consumer sentiment, regulation, and a global focus on sustainability has combined to push the issue of plastics sustainability to the fore.

Lux Research’s report, “The Sustainable Plastics Roadmap: Recycling, Bioplastics, and Alternatives,” forecasts the adoption of conventional and advanced recycling, bio-based plastics, and alternative materials and quantifies the impact of bans and other regulations to predict the future of sustainable plastics.

Our likely case presents a mixed outlook for the future of plastics. Major strides will be made in plastic waste recycling and the substitution of fossil-based resources with more sustainable alternatives; both approaches will triple in volume during the next decade.

PET and HDPE recycling will see the most growth, as mechanical recycling capacity will expand globally, and the deployment of PET depolymerization will allow the recycling of previously un-recyclable wastes. This will benefit the cosmetics packaging space by lifting recycling rates for products like hand soap bottles or toothpaste tubes and easing the use of higher rates of post-consumer recycled content.

Simplification of Packaging Will Be Crucial

Still, the plastics industry will have a long way to go. Around 285 million tons of plastic waste will not be recycled in 2030, and there will still be significant pain points like polypropylene and plastic films, which will both lack a sustainable end of life solution.

Cosmetics brands will need to amplify efforts to reduce overall packaging use, as this is the most straightforward way to reduce waste and curb emissions.

Simplification of packaging will also be crucial – multi-material solutions like metallized films need to be phased out, as a recycling system capable of handling them is unlikely to emerge. The key to sustainable progress will ultimately lie in the design choices made by brands.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Anthony Schiavo is a research director at Lux Research, and leads the Accelerating Materials Innovation program. Under his leadership, the Lux’s Materials program explores innovation and technology development that intersect with the future of the chemicals and materials industry, sustainability, digital transformation, and consumer transformation. His expertise includes future materials like graphene, digital technologies like materials informatics, and challenges like the future of plastic waste.